The web is full of misinformation about the Corona Virus, as it is about far too many things. Below is the link to an authoritative and thorough analysis completed by a team of epidemiologists and statisticians at the Imperial College in London. Their report was sent to the White House as well as to Whitehall, and was largely responsible for convincing the Trump administration that the Covid19 pandemic is extremely serious and not a hoax, a Democratic plot to make the president look bad, or merely a passing contagion easily contained. The report is 20 pages long and not an easy read, especially for a layman — I was up till midnight last night poring over it — but it’s the best thing I’ve seen yet on what strategies to employ in combatting the disease, and their likely outcome. Parts of it are alarming (e.g. if nothing were done and the virus allowed to run its course unimpeded, total deaths in the U.K. would rise to 510,000 and in the U.S. to 2.2 million!) but by and large it is a sober, clear-headed analysis.

Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020

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